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Former ambassador to Ukraine discusses Ukraine-Russia crisis in Scowcroft Institute event

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William Taylor

William Taylor testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington in this 2019 file photo. The former ambassador to Ukraine discussed Russia's invasion of the country during an online lecture hosted by the Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service on Tuesday night.

William Taylor, former ambassador to Ukraine, Tuesday night joined Andrew Natsios, director of the Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs at the Bush School, and more than 400 attendees to discuss the Ukraine-Russia crisis.

The discussion, which was held via Zoom, ranged from the fight from both Russian and Ukrainian troops, the cost to Russian citizens, why the United States should care and the direction Taylor hopes the crisis moves.

Taylor said all of the Russian troops that had been assembled along the Ukrainian border — about 200,000 — are now in Ukraine, moving toward the capital of Kyiv.

“The Ukrainian forces are defending valiantly, I will tell you, but it’s an uphill battle,” he said. “It’s David and Goliath. It’s 10-to-1 odds in almost every theater in almost every one of these avenues of approach.”

With Russia’s military overmatch, he said, the expectation was it would take them a maximum of two days to reach Kyiv. However, he said, 13 days after Russia invaded, the Ukrainian military has stalled Russian advances, especially from the north.

“Again, this is David and Goliath. I mean, this is 10-to-1 in any measure, and 100-to-1 in many measures — of equipment, of manpower, of budgets, of sophistication and of weapons,” he said.

“It is certainly not a fair fight. No one thought it would be a fair fight, and everyone knew that it was going to be overwhelming. … However, here we are on day 13.”

He said the Ukrainian military has been fighting the Russians since the first invasion in 2014, but there is a strong commitment to defend its country and its freedom.

Taylor served in Ukraine from 2006-2009 and again in 2019, soon after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected with 73% of the vote.

Since Russian troops moved into Ukraine, Taylor said Zelenskyy has become a national and international hero, unifying Ukraine in the fight against the Russians with loyalty from the Ukrainian military and citizens.

“He is inspiring governments, presidents, people, citizens around the world in his commitment, in his bravery, in his courage to stay in that capital of Kyiv. … With all these forces coming from the north, coming from the northeast, coming from the south up towards Kyiv, President Zelenskyy has resolved and determine and it said he’s not leaving Kyiv; he’s staying there.”

The biggest question regarding the Russians, he said, is why invade Ukraine, saying there are between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian soldiers who have been killed and a seemingly growing opposition to the war within Russia.

“The Russian people are listening to the propaganda in Russia, and Russian people know what their government tells them what they must know, and they say what they must say, but the number of protests and the number of protesters arrested in Russia for protesting against this war is growing dramatically, and there are increasing signs that the Russian people do not support this,” he said, saying people in Russia may have business partners or family members who live in Ukraine.

The situation for Russian citizens will get worse, he said, because more Russian soldiers will be killed and sanctions Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, had been warned would be put in place if Russia invaded will continue, forcing “normal Russian families” to suffer due to Putin’s decision.

Taylor said when brought before the United Nations General Assembly, the countries voted 141 to 5 to condemn Russia’s actions with China abstaining from the vote. He said Putin has unified NATO, Europe and Ukraine in their hatred toward Putin.

When asked what the current thinking is to establish a no fly zone or supporting Ukrainian insurgency if it comes to that, Taylor said it is a debate.

He said it is not enough to just declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine, but it would have to be enforced, which would mean taking out air defense on the ground and shooting down Russian aircraft that enter the no fly zone, both of which would be considered acts of war against Russia.

“What President Biden has said and it’s hard to argue: We don’t want to fight the Russians. This is not our intent, so we’re not putting troops on the ground at his point; we’re not putting aircraft in the sky; we’re not doing a no-fly zone.”

There are multiple scenarios with how the crisis continues and concludes. One of the worst, he said, is that Russian troops “grind down” the Ukrainian military and get to Kyiv and either take it over by not letting people out or supplies in or they “level the place,” which he called “heart wrenching” to imagine.

A more optimistic scenario, he said, is Putin sees an avenue to negotiate or the Ukrainian military pushes the Russian military back, but acknowledged the latter is “really optimistic.”

A final scenario could be that Zelenskyy has to leave Kyiv and the Ukrainian government moves to another part of the country not occupied by Russian troops, and similar to East and West Germany during the Cold War, the Ukrainian government continues in another part of the country and joins the European Union and NATO and continues to resist Russia.

“Ukraine is on the frontline,” he said. “It is on the frontline, and not by choice, but the Russians have brought this unprovoked, unjustified war to Ukraine, so it’s defending itself. It’s also defending Europe in some real sense. The Russians want, and they have said, they want a sphere of influence that starts with Ukraine; it doesn’t stop with Ukraine.”

Moldova and the Baltic states are vulnerable, he said. Not only is Ukraine fighting against the Russians, but it is doing so by itself without support from the United States.

“This is the reason why I think we are here having this conversation is the reason it’s important it succeeds is the only way we’re going to get back to some kind of order, some kind of peaceful Europe is if we recognize the sovereignty of nations, that we recognize that Ukraine in this instance is sovereign.”

From 1945 to 2014 when Russians first invaded Ukraine, the recognition of sovereign nations kept the peace, he said. There were conflicts, he said, but there were no major wars like the current crisis.

Just as Americans support the United States military that fight on the frontlines, he said, he believes they should support Ukraine also.

“Ukraine’s defending us as well, and we should support them because they are on the frontline of their fight that they didn’t pick, the frontline of Europe, the frontline of democrats against autocrats. This is an important fight, and I believe that we should support them.”

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